TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF RICE AND CORN PRODUCTION AND ITS IMPLICATION TO FOOD SECURITY IN THE PHILIPPINES

Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the economic dimension of supply of and demand for rice and corn in the Philippines, particularly when the  rice and corn shortages may be experienced in the country. The study utilized the descriptive design of  research. Data on the rice and corn production and consumption were gathered from the Philippine Statistics Authority from 1960 to 2008. The time series data for rice and corn were analyzed using symbolic regression in order to ascertain the non-linear components of the trend. Findings revealed that production and consumption of rice have upward trends. However, rice production fluctuates more frequently than consumption. Similarly, the corn production and consumption also revealed upward trends. Yet, corn consumption does not display a smoother upward movement as anticipated. It is then concluded that precise estimates about shortages and surpluses can be made for the corn commodity but the same estimates cannot be made with precision for rice production and consumption figures. Thus, food security measures must address rice production more intensly due to its inherent market volatility.